Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

(11:16) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CIN 32, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 42 for 10 yards (85-E.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.27 EP
58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model