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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CIN 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 29 for 6 yards (46-N.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model