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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 4

Washington Commanders 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 16-B.Johnson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 4, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP