Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 81

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

(6:24) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 27, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 37 for 10 yards (2-D.Brown; 40-A.Armah).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model