4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 76

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to PHI 30, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 31 for 1 yard (35-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model