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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 2

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 4-J.Elliott 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +3.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP