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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.70 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP