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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 38

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 24-J.Howard left end pushed ob at WAS 31 for 7 yards (39-J.Reaves). PENALTY on PHI-68-J.Mailata, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.70 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model