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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to LA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model