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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 31-D.Dallas (50-E.Jones) [91-G.Gaines]. PENALTY on SEA-31-D.Dallas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.21 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model