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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LA 13, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model