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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 81

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SEA 30, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-F.Swain to SEA 35 for 5 yards (96-M.Hoecht; 84-L.Akers).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model