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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model