Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 20 at the 85

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 9

(6:42) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to NO 46, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-E.Winston.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model