Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

(12:09) 8-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to NO 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model