4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to TB 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 32 for no gain (88-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.70 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP