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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(5:59) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model