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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 39 for 9 yards (50-A.Dowell).

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model