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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to TB 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 1-J.Darden to TB 43 for 11 yards (50-A.Dowell).

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.52 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model