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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to NO 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-E.Winston.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.90 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model