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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LV 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.04 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model