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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LV 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 29 for 2 yards (52-E.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.38 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model