4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to CLE 20, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.58 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model