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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to LV 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.28 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP