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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to CLE 31, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model