4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 42 for 29 yards (44-S.Takitaki; 86-M.Forristall).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model