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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:59) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model