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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to CLE 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-33-R.Teamer.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.25 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP