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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 11

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Shotgun) 27-J.Kelley right end to KC 4 for 7 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +3.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.31 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model