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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 7-H.Butker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model