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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 33

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to KC 31 for 2 yards (90-J.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.92 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model