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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 90

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to KC 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.81 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model