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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 83-W.Snead.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP