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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 14 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(6:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 46 for -8 yards (93-E.Obada).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model