Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 94

Buffalo Bills 24 – Carolina Panthers 8

(12:29) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to BUF 43, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.88 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model