Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(12:10) 3-M.Haack punts 40 yards to CAR 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.24 EP
75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model