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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 8 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 10-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model