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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 10-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to BUF 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 5-M.Stevenson.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.11 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model