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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 1
Atlanta Falcons 13 – San Francisco 49ers 31
What Actually Happened
(5:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Blake.
The Three Options
GO
+3.93 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
- 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.37 EP
KICK
+2.09 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
- 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
