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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 90

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to SF 49, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.63 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 90, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 47, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP