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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 90

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to ATL 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 35-A.Williams to SF 47 for 23 yards (89-C.Woerner).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.90 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 90, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model