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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 76

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to ATL 34, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.13 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP