Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 63

Atlanta Falcons 13 – San Francisco 49ers 31

(14:54) 19-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to SF 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 15 for -2 yards (27-R.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.91 EP
53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model