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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 1

Atlanta Falcons 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 8-K.Pitts [91-A.Armstead].

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.17 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 1, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model