Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(13:41) 19-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to SF 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-B.Aiyuk ran ob at SF 23 for 10 yards (32-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.53 EP
76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model