4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 12 – Detroit Lions 30

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy scrambles left end ran ob at DET 6 for 3 yards (38-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.80 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.33 EP