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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 19

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 6-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.27 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model