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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 11

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.28 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP