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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 28

Detroit Lions 10 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to ARI 22 for 6 yards (9-I.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.48 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model