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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 85-A.Wesley (41-A.Parker).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 3, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model